Wake County Real Estate Market Summary; Q3 2011

What do the job market and financial indicators state?
8/11 data released by the N.C. Employment Security Commission indicated an employed workforce decrease of 0.33% in Wake County and 0.53% within the combined MSA’s of Raleigh-Cary-Durham-Chapel Hill.

The unemployment rate increased to 8.5% versus 8.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average at the end of the quarter was up 1% compared to 3Q/10 and the average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage was down to 4.39% from 4.76% a year ago.

What is happening with inventory? There are currently 6,967 active listings listed within TMLS. This is a 21% decrease from inventory levels seen in 3Q/10.

New home listings were down 23% and re-sale listings were down 21%. There were 4,557 houses entered into the system as new listings during the quarter, a 21% decrease from 3Q/10. Expired and withdrawn listings during the quarter accounted for 40% of active listings, down from 43% in 3Q/10. The average list price is $302,600 a decrease of 2% compared to 3Q/10. There are currently 3,446 sellers who have dropped list price from original, a 33% decrease from the price dropping levels in 3Q/10. Price dropping sellers account for 49% of active listings, versus 58% at the end of 3Q/10.

For those sellers who dropped list price, the average discount was 7%. The average days on market for the active listings is 144, up from 130 at the end of 3Q/10.

Is traffic increasing or decreasing? There were 85,254 showings logged in the CSS system during the quarter. This was a 4% increase compared to 3Q/10 showings.

Is anyone committing to residential real estate? There were 2,985 listings with a status change to pending during the quarter. This was a 22% increase compared to
pending sales during 3Q/10. Third quarter pending sales accounted for 43% of total listings. During the third quarter of 2010, pending sales accounted for 27% of total listings.

Did closings return to a normal pattern? Yes they did, but this was the first comparative quarter without an incentive based market. There were 2,953 closings reported by TMLS during the quarter, an increase of 28% compared to 2Q/10. The Wake County Register of Deeds recorded 9% more deed transfers compared to 3Q/10. Year to date closings are down 9%. Financial concessions were
paid on 53% of the closings, up from 51% during 3Q/10. Cash closings accounted for 16% of quarterly closings, the same percentage as last year. The average sales price for closings in TMLS was $246,300, down 7% compared to the average sales price at the end of 3Q/10. The average days on market for the closed sales was 125 days, up from the 101 day average at the end of 3Q/10. Based upon third quarter closings, there is a 7 month supply of housing within the county, down from the 11 month supply seen at the end of 3Q/10.

Are foreclosures dominating the market? The foreclosure/distressed property market accounts for 9% of current active listings within the county, up from the 7% share this time last year. Third quarter foreclosure filings in the county decreased 26%.

What happens when a house is priced correctly at initial list? Good things. When final list price is equal to original list price, the average days on market for closings during the third quarter was 60 days and the house sold for 97% of list. When final list price is lower than original list, there is a days on market penalty. These houses sold in an average of 177 days and for an average of 88% of original list. Closings where the final list price was the same as the original list price accounted for 43% of third quarter closings.

by Triangle Area Residential Realty

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